Sources & method
Every number and quote on the page is footnoted. Here is the full list, in order of appearance.
How I work
- Every fact has a source. I check quotes against the primary source; where that isn’t accessible, I rely on reputable outlets that report them.
- Section labels say what something is: “today” - already happening; “possible scenario” and “extreme scenario” - risks, not predictions; “a way forward” - proposed solutions.
- Lab tests are labeled as tests and never mixed with real incidents.
- Quotes from “The Coming Wave” use the wording of the English edition (Crown, 2023).
- I show the other side too: AI’s benefits and the arguments that the risks may be overstated.
All sources
AI does it faster and cheaper. Who can resist?
- ILO–NASK, 2025 ↗
- IMF, 2024 cnbc.com ↗
- Stanford, 2026 digitaleconomy.stanford.edu ↗
- CNBC ↗
- CNBC ↗
- Amazon aboutamazon.com ↗
- Diary of a CEO, 2025 singjupost.com ↗
- NVIDIA, 2025 nvidianews.nvidia.com ↗
- Goldman Sachs, 2024 goldmansachs.com ↗
- The Adolescence of Technology, 2026 darioamodei.com ↗
- “The Coming Wave” book - no link
- TechCrunch, 2026 ↗
The state runs on your work. What if it’s gone?
- Quote Investigator quoteinvestigator.com ↗
- Citrini Research, 2026 citriniresearch.com ↗
- Financial Times / Fortune, 2025 ↗
- Bloomberg, 2026 ↗
- OECD Revenue Statistics 2025 ↗
- “The Coming Wave” book - no link
- FDR Library fdrlibrary.org ↗
- University of Oxford nuff.ox.ac.uk ↗
- Brookings ↗
- Sheffield Hallam University shu.ac.uk ↗
- CNBC, 2017 ↗
- TechCrunch, 2026 ↗
AI is speeding up. It has already slipped out of a test.
- METR Time Horizons ↗
- Anthropic ↗
- Engadget ↗
- Epoch AI ↗
- We Must Pace the Frontier darioamodei.com ↗
- Quote Investigator quoteinvestigator.com ↗
- Hugging Face huggingface.co ↗
- OpenAI, July 2026 ↗
- OpenAI, August 2026 ↗
- METR ↗
- Anthropic ↗
- OpenAI o1 System Card cdn.openai.com ↗
- OpenAI o1 System Card / Apollo Research cdn.openai.com ↗
- Fudan University arxiv.org ↗
- Palisade Research palisaderesearch.org ↗
- The Adolescence of Technology, 2026 darioamodei.com ↗
- “The Coming Wave” book - no link
What if we’re not needed?
- The Intelligence Curse intelligence-curse.ai ↗
- Gradual Disempowerment arxiv.org ↗
- Fortune, 2023 ↗
- Moore’s Law for Everything moores.samaltman.com ↗
- TechCrunch, 2026 ↗
- Roll Call, 2026 rollcall.com ↗
- OpenResearch openresearchlab.org ↗
- The Adolescence of Technology, 2026 darioamodei.com ↗
- The Economist, 2023 ↗
- “The Coming Wave” book - no link